The price of Polish migration – who gains, who loses?

The price of Polish migration – who gains, who loses?

The Sobieski Institute analysed the costs of the Polish migration phenomenon, in particular within the area of the common EU market. The results might be surprising... and disturbing.

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According to the experts of the Institute, the list of major beneficiaries of the Polish migration in the years 2014-2020 will include the economies of: the United Kingdom (EUR 63.7 billion), Germany (EUR 50 billion), Ireland (EUR 11.8 billion), Italy (EUR 9.7 billion), the Netherlands (EUR 9.7 billion), France (EUR 6.3 billion), Belgium (EUR 4.8 billion), Sweden (EUR 3.8 billion) and Spain (EUR 3.7 billion).

The remaining EU Member States will gain less, but the scale of the Polish migration – which might be compared with the population of the Warsaw agglomeration – shows its true economic consequences. However, despite the data, the majority of the societies of the Western Europe expresses their aversion to the influx of Polish workers.

The development paradox also consists in the fact that the Polish migration weakens the development potential of the regions it comes from. In 2014-2020 the largest drop of GDP due to migration will be experienced by the following regions: Silesia (EUR 15 billion), Małopolska Region (EUR 12.2 billion), Lower Silesia (EUR 11.8 billion) and Podkarpackie Region (EUR 11.6 billion). Fewer losses will be experienced by the following regions: Mazovia (EUR 9.6 billion), Pomeranian Region (EUR 8.6 billion), Lublin Region (EUR 7.3 billion) Podlasie (EUR 7.1 billion) as well as Warmian-Masurian Region, Opole Region and West Pomeranian Region (EUR 7 billion each).

The sum of the potential – national and migration – varies in relation to the participation of the given region in the GDP of the entire country. The residents of Mazovia generate more GDP in the country than abroad, when looking at the participation in the national balance (the difference is 15 percent). Surplus is generated by the Wielkopolska Region (4%), Łódź Region (2.5%) and Silesia (1.6%). In the remaining regions, the migration potential is higher than the national potential in the national balance. The highest losses are recorded in the : Podkarpackie, Opole, Podlaskie, Warmian-Masurian, Małopolska, Lublin and West Pomeranian Reginos.

From the aforementioned data it follows that the metropolises of those regions are not sufficiently attractive in terms of job creation. It is bad news for Rzeszów, Opole, Białystok, Olsztyn, Kraków, Lublin and Szczecin. The GDP balance generated in Warsaw, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice exhibits certain resistance to migration. There is a distinctive relation between the migration and the development potential of the country and its individual regions. Some regions are permanently resistant to migration – others are not. The decisions on providing financing to human resources development projects in the years 2014-2020 should be made bearing that imbalance in mind. The main incentive that motivates Polish citizens to migrate is the need to find employment, secondly – education, and then – family matters. It is estimated that over the past years, Poland lost the most creative and dynamic group of over 1.2 million people with at least secondary education, including over 400 thousand people with higher education, that is almost 7% of the total population with higher education.